DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 100657
SWODY2
SPC AC 100656

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES IS PROGGED
TO WEAKEN SLOWLY WHILE SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS
AND INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS EJECTING
FEATURE...A MUCH LARGER TROUGH/LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT LARGELY PREVAILING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE U.S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW INITIALLY OVER THE MID SOUTH IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME...EVENTUALLY REDEVELOPING E OF THE APPALACHIANS
INVOF THE CAROLINAS BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. WHILE AN
INITIAL/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THIS LOW...A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND SHOULD APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

...THE SOUTHEAST...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD FROM THE MID SOUTH REGION SWD INTO NWRN FL. VERY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY BUT STRONG/VEERING FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT LOW-END
WIND/TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST WITH MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS.

AS THE SURFACE FRONT -- AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF CONVECTION -- SHIFTS
EWD INTO A SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY-LAYER ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL TO REMAIN LIMITED.

WITH LOW REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE CAROLINAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SOME INLAND FLUX OF GULF STREAM MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A
SLIGHTLY MORE THERMODYNAMICALLY-CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...AND THUS
POSSIBLY SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION. STILL...WITH CAPE LIKELY TO
REMAIN MINIMAL...ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD LIKEWISE REMAIN LOW
DESPITE FAVORABLE KINEMATICS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5%
SEVERE/TORNADO PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST...THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE
BEING EXPANDED SWD ACROSS FL TO COVER ANY LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO CROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 01/10/2012

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