SWODY2
SPC AC 070654
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST SAT JAN 07 2012
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXITS NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD...A
SECOND/LARGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS/SRN ROCKIES REGION. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A
CLOSED LOW WITH TIME...AND SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE SRN NM/FAR W TX/N
CENTRAL MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT PROGGED TO HAVE MOVED WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS BY THE START OF THE PERIOD IS
FORECAST TO BECOME QUASISTATIONARY FROM SC WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...AND WSWWD INTO TX. AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW EVOLVES AND
APPROACHES W TX...CYCLOGENESIS ON THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED...WITH A WEAK LOW REACHING FAR NERN MEXICO/THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY LATE.
...SRN AND ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...
WEAK ASCENT NEAR AND N OF THE QUASISTATIONARY SURFACE FRONT LYING
ROUGHLY W-E ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND S CENTRAL CONUS WILL COMBINE
WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL/LOCAL
LIGHTNING THIS PERIOD. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...BUT
SHOULD INCREASE FARTHER W INTO TX DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...A
VERY LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT COULD EVOLVE INVOF THE S TX COAST REGION
WHERE RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE -- WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF
THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES/MEAGER INSTABILITY EXPECTED...AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT A
SURFACE-BASED STABLE LAYER WILL PREVAIL INLAND...OVERALL CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. WHILE A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT -- MAINLY LATE IN THE PERIOD NEAR THE S TX
COAST...PROBABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
INTRODUCTION OF A 5% THREAT AREA THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 01/07/2012
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