Saturday, January 7, 2012

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 070827
SWODY3
SPC AC 070826

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CST SAT JAN 07 2012

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
THOUGH A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE ERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW LATE...THE MAIN SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE THE CLOSED LOW PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO
THE SRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD. WHILE SURFACE RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND OVER THE WRN GULF FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO INCREASE LATE...WITH A
LOW MOVING ONSHORE INTO SRN/WRN LA DURING THE LATTER QUARTER OF THE
PERIOD. LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.

...SRN LA...
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NWD OUT OF THE WRN GULF AND INTO SRN/WRN
LA THROUGH THE LATE STAGES OF THE PERIOD...SURFACE SELYS VEERING TO
SWLY IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
ROTATING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES YIELDING MEAGER
INSTABILITY IN GENERAL...AND EXPECTED LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION
LIKELY CONFINED TO THE SRN-MOST COUPLE OF TIERS OF PARISHES SUGGEST
THAT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN BOTH DEGREE AND
AREAL EXTENT.

WHERE HIGHER THETA-E MARINE LAYER CAN PENETRATE INLAND...A FEW
ROTATING/LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY EVOLVE DURING LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND INCREASING/DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE
LOW-PROBABILITY /5%/ SEVERE THREAT THIS FORECAST...MAINLY TO COVER
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..GOSS.. 01/07/2012

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