SWODY3
SPC AC 220825
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AS UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SWEEP ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE
ADJACENT NERN CONUS...A TROUGH OVER THE AZ/NM REGION IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW AND SHIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO W TX AND VICINITY
WITH TIME. IN RESPONSE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW INVOF NM/FAR W TX --
WHILE LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK -- SHOULD SHIFT SEWD ROUGHLY
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...REACHING DEEP S TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM WILL FOCUS THE MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD.
...TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX SEWD TO THE COAST...
THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM -- AND ASSOCIATED RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AREA CYCLOGENESIS -- WILL EFFECT A WNWLY RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO
COASTAL AND S TX...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NW AS THE TRANSPECOS REGION.
AS COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OVERSPREADS W TX
DURING THE AFTERNOON ATOP THE WNWWD STREAM OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...A FEW STRONGER AFTERNOON/EVENING CELLS COULD EVOLVE...A
COUPLE PERHAPS BECOMING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
MEANWHILE...WITH THE PRIOR FRONT HAVING STALLED INVOF THE GULF
COAST...RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE READILY AVAILABLE
ACROSS THE TX COAST AND INTO S TX. WHILE CAPPED
INITIALLY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND S TX WITH TIME -- MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND THE SURFACE
LOW NEARS S TX. WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
AN ISOLATED/WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT...AND LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL AND WIND WITH A STRONGER STORM OR TWO...WILL INCLUDE A SWATH OF
LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST -- FROM NEAR MAF EWD
AND SEWD INTO PARTS OF S TX AND THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST.
..GOSS.. 01/22/2012
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