SWOD48
SPC AC 220935
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
DIFFERENCES IN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS -- ALREADY
APPARENT AT DAY 4 /WED. 1-25/ BECOME SUBSTANTIAL DAY 5 /THU.
1-26/...AS THE ECMWF BECOMES MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SRN U.S.
LOW/TROUGH...PHASING IT WITH A NRN STREAM SYSTEM AND SHIFTING IT OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY 6 /FRI. 1-27/ PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS A FULL DAY SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH ITS
CLOSED LOW STILL OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY DAY 6 AT THE SAME TIME THE
ECMWF SYSTEM MOVES THE SYSTEM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
GIVEN THE INCONSISTENT/DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS...SPECIFIC SEVERE
WEATHER AREAL FORECASTS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED ATTM. SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY SHIFT FROM THE WRN GULF COAST REGION DAY 4
ACROSS THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...BUT DEGREE OF THREAT AND
TIMING OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CANNOT BE CONFIDENTLY
ASCERTAINED ATTM.
..GOSS.. 01/22/2012
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