SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100109
TXZ000-100415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 PM CST MON JAN 09 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 100109Z - 100415Z
THE MID-LEVEL LOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF REDEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS/TRANSPECOS REGION INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
AS THIS OCCURS...STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...IN THE FAVORABLE MIXED PHASED LAYER FOR DENDRITIC ICE
CRYSTAL GROWTH...IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT TO A MORE EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF MIDLAND INTO THE SWEETWATER AREA...DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE ORDER OF .5
TO .75 INCHES...HEAVY SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR APPEAR
TO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 03-04Z TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...THE
EASTERN END OF THIS BAND MAY CONTINUE TO PIVOT/REDEVELOP NORTHWARD
INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS...WHERE COOLING MAY NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW. THIS ...COUPLED WITH WEAKENING LIFT IN THE
RESIDUAL SUBFREEZING ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DIMINISHING SNOW RATES AND A GRADUAL
DISSIPATION OF THE SNOW BAND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..KERR.. 01/10/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32930262 33140220 33170052 32789995 32110007 31890067
32100151 32270252 32670272 32930262
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