SWODY1
SPC AC 081610
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CST THU MAR 08 2012
VALID 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO NORTHERN
MS...
...TX/AR/LA/MS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TODAY WITH
WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. DESPITE THIS
RIDGE...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING RICH
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND HELPING TO FOSTER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF TX/LA/AR/MS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR AND MARGINAL CAPE VALUES INDICATE A RISK OF OCCASIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL LIKELY FOCUS IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE RISK AREA.
..HART/ROGERS.. 03/08/2012
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