MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0234

ACUS11 KWNS 081619
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081619
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-081715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CST THU MAR 08 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NERN TX...SWRN/CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081619Z - 081715Z

AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SERN OK. ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

16Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM 20 W RUE SWWD TO 30 W
GYI...DISPLAYING PRIMARILY ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
PROGRESSES SEWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX. RADAR REFLECTIVITY TRENDS SHOW
ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...PRIMARILY ALONG/NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY ATTM.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND A MOIST/NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER IS
LIMITING INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH 12Z SHV SOUNDING SAMPLED
STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN AN EML ABOVE 3 KM AGL. ADDITIONALLY...A
CAPPING INVERSION AT THE BASE OF THE EML HAS LIKELY WEAKENED WITH
TIME /PARTICULARLY WITH EWD EXTENT/. ALTHOUGH KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE
ONLY EXHIBITING WEAK VEERING WITH HEIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /SAMPLED AT 30-40 KTS IN 0.5-2 KM AGL
LAYER BY DQU PROFILER/ WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO...WITH SFC-BASED CONVECTION
IN THE WARM SECTOR. ADDITIONALLY...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL
EXIST ON BOTH SIDES OF THE COLD FRONT GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY OF
TSTM COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON STILL
EXISTS...AS WEAK MIDLEVEL RIDGING AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...ALONG
WITH THE ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCED ASCENT...COULD PRECLUDE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT.

..ROGERS.. 03/08/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 35119192 34719178 33649269 33089444 32689503 32559577
32889661 33689680 34239601 34789460 35189302 35329222
35119192

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