SWODY2
SPC AC 081643
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 AM CST THU MAR 08 2012
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER NM AND AZ THROUGH
THE PERIOD WHILE A LARGE BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE NERN
STATES. A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING EWD TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST FRI NIGHT.
A SWLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE SRN PLAINS E OF THE
UPPER LOW...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED NWD ATOP THE
RELATIVELY STABLE SURFACE LAYER WHERE WINDS WILL BE NLY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER TX.
...TX...
A LARGE RAIN SHIELD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS MUCH OF TX FRI MORNING...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD
ATOP THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. LITTLE IF ANY DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR DUE TO LACK OF HEATING AND ONLY SLIGHT INCREASES IN NWWD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT DUE TO ADVECTION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG MOST
AREAS...WITH FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES TO CONSOLIDATE A
FEW UPDRAFTS INTO LONGER LIVED CORES. THE WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
ONLY SMALL HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE...WITH SEVERE UNLIKELY.
...FL...
STRONG HEATING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY WITH AT LEAST WEAK WIND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AN DRY AIR ALOFT WILL EXIST...ISOLATED WEAK AND
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM...ENDING QUICKLY NEAR SUNSET.
..JEWELL.. 03/08/2012
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