SWODY2
SPC AC 161730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED DURING
DAY 2...WITH A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVING WEST OF THE ROCKIES...UPSTREAM
OF A RIDGE PREVAILING ACROSS THE ERN STATES. THE WRN TROUGH WILL BE
A RESULT OF VERY STRONG PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL JETS DIGGING SSEWD
TOWARD NRN BAJA BY 12Z SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM SRN
AZ/NM TO THE SRN PLAINS TODAY WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ON
SATURDAY...ADVANCING THROUGH MO AND MID MS VALLEY...AND REACHING THE
LOWER OH VALLEY/MIDWEST REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...THE UPPER MS VALLEY PORTION OF A WARM
FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING WNWWD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
EXPECTED TO MOVE N TODAY...WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATIONARY OVER FAR
NRN MN ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM A LEE TROUGH OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN STATES.
...MUCH OF MO/MID MS VALLEY...
A RESIDUAL MOIST AIR MASS PRESENT ACROSS THIS REGION AND BENEATH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE SRN PLAINS TROUGH
COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND GENERALLY
WEAK FORCING ATTENDANT TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH LIMIT THE
CONFIDENCE IN AREA OF INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND OVERALL COVERAGE
INTO THE EVENING. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AT OR BELOW 25-30 KT
SUGGESTS MULTICELLS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE WITH STRONGER
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS AND/OR MARGINAL
HAIL MAINTAINING LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
...UPPER MS VALLEY...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL REMAIN CAPPED
THROUGH DAY 2. DESPITE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP S OF THE WARM FRONT...THE CAP COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF A
MIDLEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE SUGGESTS TSTM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THESE FACTORS WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES BEING
LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS REGION REMAINS CAPPED THROUGH DAY 2
WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO BE QUITE LIMITED.
ALTHOUGH THE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THE LACK OF GUIDANCE
INDICATING TSTM DEVELOPMENT WARRANTS SEVERE PROBABILITIES BEING LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
..PETERS.. 03/16/2012
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