SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161740
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-161945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0266
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...NW GA...SE TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 161740Z - 161945Z
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
PULSE-LIKE CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...SLOW STORM MOTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS MIDDLE TN. AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE AIR
MASS HAS BECOME UNCAPPED WITH SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG. PER
REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS AND LATEST MESOANALYSIS...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7-7.5 DEG C/KM COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ROBUST UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE
OF DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERY WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR
/10-15 KT/...STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF. THEREFORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND ONLY SPORADIC
INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED AND A WW IS NOT NEED.
..LEITMAN.. 03/16/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 32708472 32618589 32698668 32908726 33358784 33908808
34338810 34568794 34838763 35668582 35438500 35178450
34478411 33438392 32968409 32708472
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