SWODY3
SPC AC 280726
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID OH VALLEY REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
THOUGH ANOTHER PIECE OF THE PERSISTENT NERN PACIFIC UPPER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH THE W COAST LATE RESULTING IN EVENTUAL
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW FIELD...A FAIRLY FLAT FLOW PATTERN
IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN DISTURBANCE WITHIN
THIS PATTERN -- AT LEAST WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST --
WILL BE THE COMPACT/FAST-MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MARCH
QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...REACHING THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW AND ACCOMPANYING/TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE MIDWEST/TN VALLEY REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND SHOULD FOCUS STRONG/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
...MID OH VALLEY REGION...
ONGOING STORMS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COMPACT UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY/EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MID OH VALLEY
REGION BY AFTERNOON...AS MODEST DESTABILIZATION OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT OCCURS.
STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR ESE AS THE CAROLINAS ALONG THE
WEAK/REMNANT WARM FRONT...AND SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS ALONG THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS A HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE.
HOWEVER...THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID OH
VALLEY REGION...WHERE STRONGER SHEAR IS PROGGED IN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER SYSTEM. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS MAY BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...WITH RELATIVELY FAST
WNWLY FLOW ALOFT PERHAPS ALLOWING ONE OR MORE FAST-MOVING STORM
CLUSTERS TO EVOLVE.
STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS
DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION INCREASES.
..GOSS.. 03/28/2012
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