SWOD48
SPC AC 280847
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
VALID 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE EWD EJECTION OF A
SUBSTANTIAL CHUNK OF THE PERSISTENT NERN PACIFIC UPPER
SYSTEM...SHIFTING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DAY 4 /SAT 3-31/ AND
THEN INTO THE PLAINS DAY 5. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
PERSIST BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...EVEN MORESO THAN THE MODEL RUNS
FROM 24 HOURS AGO.
WHILE THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL -- AND
EVENTUALLY THE ERN/NERN U.S. -- WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS DEPICTED IN THESE TWO MODELS CAST
CONSIDERABLE DOUBT AS TO EVEN ROUGH APPROXIMATIONS OF TIMING AND
LOCATION. THE ECMWF APPEARS SUBSTANTIALLY MORE ROBUST WITH RESPECT
TO SEVERE POTENTIAL -- PARTICULARLY BEYOND DAY 4...WITH ITS MUCH
SLOWER/NEGATIVELY-TILTED PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS
AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS WHICH SHIFTS A MUCH FLATTER SYSTEM QUICKLY EWD
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S./GREAT LAKES REGION. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
MODEL DIVERGENCE...WILL ONCE AGAIN FOREGO AN AREAL HIGHLIGHT THIS
FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 03/28/2012
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