DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 241728
SWODY2
SPC AC 241726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2012

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS AND
OH VALLEY REGION...

...MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION...

WEAK HEIGHT RISES WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE. EARLY IN THE PERIOD LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
BE FOCUSED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF SFC LOW OVER SWRN MN
AND THIS SHOULD PROVE RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION.
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THIS REGION AND THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT A STRONG CAP WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY...WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY
SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT WARM SECTOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE OR SEVERELY RETARDED DURING THE PERIOD AS WLY FLOW LIMITS
DEEPER UPDRAFTS. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS ASCENT NORTH-EAST OF
RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL DRIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION SEWD ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM SRN WI INTO IL/IND DURING THE DAY. LATEST SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE OVERESTIMATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THIS REGION WITH THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTING MID 60S DEW POINTS WILL
RETURN INTO THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. THIS IS LIKELY TOO HIGH AS TRUE
MID 60S DEW POINTS ARE LIMITED TO DEEP SOUTH TX ATTM. EVEN
SO...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO SUGGEST TRANSITORY CLUSTERS OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AS THEY SPREAD TOWARD THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO AS WEAK CONVERGENCE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG CAP SHOULD BE NOTED.

...NRN ROCKIES...

UNTIL THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM IT APPEARS RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE HEAT
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/INTERIOR NW. SHORT
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL
BE FOCUSED ACROSS ERN ORE INTO SWRN ID. SFC PARCELS SHOULD BE FREE
TO CONVECT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLY SHEARED FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW.. 04/24/2012

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