ACUS11 KWNS 241919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241918
IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-242045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0583
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NE ORE...ID...SE WA...FAR WRN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 241918Z - 242045Z
AS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...HAIL
AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. THE
THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INITIATE ACROSS NCNTRL ID WHERE
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES
ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL
WSR-88D VWPS SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED
WITH LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 9.0 C/KM SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. ALSO...SFC TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
SPREADS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES MAY HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE MCD AREA IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP STORM ORGANIZATION ON THE MARGINAL SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 04/24/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...
LAT...LON 46171447 47001477 47311558 47151687 46531726 45621713
45101752 44541771 44161721 44021658 44141604 44871508
45451450 46171447
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