Thursday, May 17, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170524
SWODY1
SPC AC 170521

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2012

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIGGING WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DISTINCT BRANCHES OF STRONGER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THOUGH...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION SLOWLY SHIFTING FROM THE EASTERN GULF STATES INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INLAND RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND...ASIDE FROM SOME INCREASE IN
SURFACE DEW POINTS ASSOCIATED WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER LOW ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. STEEP LAPSE RATES...OROGRAPHIC AND
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION COULD STILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT... HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
APPEAR CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST STATES...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

...SOUTHEAST...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG MID/
HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. WHILE
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
COULD ENHANCE STORMS...MAINLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE REMAINS UNCLEAR CONCERNING SURFACE FEATURES AND
POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...AND IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION WILL OCCUR TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION.

OTHERWISE...GIVEN CONTINUING WEAK MID-LEVEL INHIBITION AND LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY
TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT LOCALIZED POCKETS OF MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A COUPLE OF STORMS WITH
SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL.

..KERR/ROGERS.. 05/17/2012

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