DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170551
SWODY2
SPC AC 170549

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TRACK FROM THE GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM THE BLACK
HILLS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...INTERSECTING A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY
SAT.

...NRN TO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A SLY LLJ ON D1-2 WILL RESULT IN TRANSPORT OF A MARGINALLY MOIST AIR
MASS CURRENTLY PRESENT OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH RETURN FLOW OFF
THE WRN GULF REMAINING MODEST. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE SUBDUED
FOR A TYPICAL PLAINS WARM SECTOR...LARGELY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S/40S ALONG THE LEE TROUGH IN THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S OVER THE NRN PLAINS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STRENGTHENING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD RESULT
IN AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS FORMING BY LATE AFTERNOON...LIKELY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE IN THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
LLJ INTENSIFIES AND WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

WHERE BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY BE LARGEST INVOF THE COLD
FRONT...DEEP-LAYER S/SWLYS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY MODERATE AND NEARLY
PARALLEL THIS BOUNDARY. THE ANAFRONTAL/UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING SUGGESTS THE BULK OF CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE COMPOSITE FRONT/OUTFLOW...MITIGATING
LONGEVITY OF WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ALTHOUGH A CLUSTER OR TWO OF
TSTMS SHOULD ULTIMATELY EVOLVE...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS
WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK DELINEATION.

..GRAMS.. 05/17/2012

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