DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 140729
SWODY3
SPC AC 140728

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER PARTS OF ONTARIO
AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT 12Z/WED...WILL SHIFT EWD INTO QUEBEC
AND PERHAPS NRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND BY THU MORNING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST TO OH VALLEY. COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY APPROACHING NRN CA WILL DAMPEN AS IT REACHES THE CNTRL/SRN
ROCKIES BY WED. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN ACROSS THE
NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH A LLJ STRENGTHENING IN THE GREAT PLAINS
WED NIGHT.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/NRN APPALACHIANS...
DIFFERENCES ABOUND WITH MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION ON WED. THE
00Z ECMWF/GFS/NAM ALL DEPICT DIFFERING EVOLUTIONS OF VORTICITY
MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH...WHICH APPEAR TO DRIVE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON WED.
REGARDLESS...WITH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINING
LIMITED...ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING UNLIKELY TO BE AS STRONG AS
WHAT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR UPSTREAM NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
TUE...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE RATHER MARGINAL WHERE
STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL BE PREVALENT.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THE GREAT PLAINS LLJ...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THAT CONVECTION SHOULD FORM TOWARDS 12Z/THU WITHIN A WAA
REGIME. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED PARCELS WOULD HAVE
ONLY MODEST SHEAR IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE
SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL.

..GRAMS.. 05/14/2012

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