Monday, May 14, 2012

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0807

ACUS11 KWNS 140717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140717
TXZ000-140915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0807
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 140717Z - 140915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE BOW ECHO CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST AROUND 40KT TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE IN SW TX EARLY TODAY.
SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KT HAVE ACCOMPANIED THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THIS THREAT
WILL SPREAD OUT OF TERRELL COUNTY AND WATCH 276 AND INTO VAL VERDE
COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

DISCUSSION...LATEST CAPPI AND LTG DATA INDICATE THAT THE QLCS HAS
GENERALLY MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY SINCE MOVING THROUGH THE FST AREA
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF HURRICANE FORCE. SEVERE TSTM WIND POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO WRN/NWRN PORTIONS OF VAL VERDE
COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR...AND MAY APPROACH THE DEL RIO AREA AROUND
09Z...4AM CDT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING MCS MAINTENANCE AND
OVERALL POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT SEVERE BEYOND ABOUT THAT TIME BUT GIVEN
CURRENT TRENDS...A SMALL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

..CARBIN/THOMPSON.. 05/14/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 30610184 30690167 30110093 29670067 29120065 28880092
28810146 29070197 29310228 29770268 30080202 30610184

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