DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 220549
SWODY2
SPC AC 220548

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE COAST OF ORE
SATURDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...AN AXIS OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE DAKOTAS WWD INTO
MT AND NRN ID. AS SFC TEMPS WARM SATURDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN WA EWD INTO CNTRL MT WHERE POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD BE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS WRN MT AT 00Z/SUN IN AREAS THAT SHOW THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ANY SEVERE THREAT COULD
REMAIN ISOLATED MAINLY DUE TO RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A MOIST AXIS IN
PLACE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE SFC LOW EXTENDING NWD INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F SHOULD HELP MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHERE THE GFS
DEVELOPS THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AT 00Z/SUN ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHOW 40 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR SUGGESTING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH A FEW MODELS DEVELOPING CONVECTION FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE FAVORED AND
KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT CONCENTRATED IN NRN MN AND NRN WI WHERE A 5
PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY CONTOUR HAS BEEN ADDED.

..BROYLES.. 06/22/2012

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