DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 220713
SWODY3
SPC AC 220712

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...MID-MS VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ADVANCE SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MID-MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY. AS SFC TEMPS WARM JUST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...THE MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM LOWER MI SWWD INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE THREAT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
HAVE PLACED THE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN
BEST AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT.

...NORTHWEST MONTANA...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE WRN U.S. ON SUNDAY
WITH A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SFC...A MOIST AXIS IS FORECAST ACROSS CNTRL AND NW MT WHERE
THE MODELS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THAT THE
MODELS ARE CORRECT BY PLACING MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES...A SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE
INCLUDED A 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY IN NW MT WHERE IT APPEARS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR.

..BROYLES.. 06/22/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.