DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 220853
SWOD48
SPC AC 220852

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE IN THE CNTRL STATES AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NERN US.
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON
MONDAY/DAY 4 THE MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. ON TUESDAY/DAY 5...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE NRN ROCKIES AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE
NWRN STATES. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 6...THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NCNTRL STATES WHERE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY. ON THURSDAY/DAY 7...THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF MOVING THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE RIDGE BACK TO THE
WEST IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN THE NCNTRL STATES BUT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
RANGE IS HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. OVERALL...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST
COAST ON DAY 4...IN THE NRN ROCKIES ON DAY 5 AND IN THE NCNTRL
STATES ON DAY 6 BUT PREDICTABILITY FOR A SEVERE THREAT AREA REMAINS
QUITE LOW.

..BROYLES.. 06/22/2012

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