DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100537
SWODY1
SPC AC 100535

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT MON SEP 10 2012

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA/NV/AZ/SOUTHWEST UT...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY BEGIN TO OPEN/MOVE A
BIT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
ON THE IMMEDIATE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION INTO
PARTS OF NV/UT. AIDED BY UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND/OR OROGRAPHIC LIFT...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BECOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...AMPLE MOISTURE/AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE UP TO
500-1000 J PER KG/ AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER/SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MORE PROBABLE HAZARD
WHERE TSTMS OCCUR/PERSIST...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION/MIXING AND
WATER LOADING MAY ALLOW FOR MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...FL PENINSULA...
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AT
LEAST ON A SCATTERED BASIS...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAKENING/SLOW
SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS QUITE LOW AMID WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND ANEMIC VERTICAL
SHEAR.

...NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
THE REGION WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AT LEAST GLANCING HEIGHT
FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON VIA A CANADIAN ROCKIES UPPER
TROUGH. ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING IN AREAS SUCH AS EASTERN WY/WESTERN SD/SOUTHWEST ND/FAR
SOUTHEAST MT WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BETWEEN A LEE
TROUGH AND EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVING COLD FRONT. IF/WHERE TSTMS DO OCCUR
AND REMAIN SOMEWHAT SUSTAINED WITHIN A MINIMAL MOISTURE
ENVIRONMENT...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/WIND GUSTS MAY
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT/STRENGTHENING WINDS
ALOFT. BUT ESPECIALLY GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE...ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS QUITE LIMITED.

..GUYER/LEITMAN.. 09/10/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.