DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 100511
SWODY2
SPC AC 100509

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 AM CDT MON SEP 10 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE NRN
TIER STATES. AN IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
EJECT NEWD THROUGH MAINTOBA AND WRN QUEBEC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK CUTOFF LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE SWRN U.S. WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE ERN STATES.

...SWRN U.S. THROUGH GREAT BASIN AND SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...

HIGH BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SWRN U.S. NEWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES.
INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS MAY OCCUR IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE DIABATIC WARMING.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION IN MOST OF THIS REGION...SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE
THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY MARGINAL.

...NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...

NRN EXTENT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH. MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN THIS
REGION...AND STRONGER FORCING ATTENDING THE EJECTING IMPULSE
SHOULD REMAIN IN CANADA. THESE FACTORS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM PROSPECTS ALONG COLD FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED
HIGH BASED BUT ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR...PRIMARILY IN POST
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
MAY RESULT IN A SHALLOW LAYER OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

...SRN FL...

COLD FRONT MAY STALL OVER S FL. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITHIN MOIST WARM SECTOR AS DIABATIC WARMING
DESTABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..DIAL.. 09/10/2012

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