DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161223
SWODY1
SPC AC 161221

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING...HELPING
TO INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MN/WI AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN INCREASING IN
COVERAGE BY EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SD/MN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION. RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO ALLOW STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT...OR TO
BE ELEVATED AND FORM WELL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WILL MAINTAIN A
SMALL AREA OF LOW SEVERE WIND PROBS BUT THE THREAT SEEMS QUITE
MINIMAL.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH TX
INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY. WEAK INSTABILITY/
SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

..HART.. 09/16/2012

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