ACUS48 KWNS 160849
SWOD48
SPC AC 160849
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN DAY-3 OUTLOOK MAY MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS NEW ENGLAND EARLY DAY-4 PERIOD WITH AT LEAST
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL...AS PARENT PERTURBATION ALOFT
EJECTS INTO QUE. ATTM...TIMING OF SFC FROPA APPEARS TOO
VARIABLE/UNCERTAIN IN PROGS...AND PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY TOO
LIMITED...TO JUSTIFY 30% RISK AREA 4 DAYS OUT. FOLLOWING
THAT...MEAN/LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE MAINTAINED OVER GREAT LAKES/MS
VALLEY/TN VALLEY REGION BY SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES.
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE WILL INFLUENCE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE AND
MOISTURE RECOVERY IN WAKE OF DAY 3-4 COLD FROPA OFF ATLC COAST.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THETAE DISPLACED TOO
FAR E AND SE OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL SVR EVENT
IN ERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE...SFC RETURN FLOW MOISTURE MAY REACH SWRN RIM OF STRONGER
NW FLOW ALOFT DAY-5/20TH-21ST...OVER PORTIONS KS/OK. WHILE STG-SVR
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR OUTLOOK ATTM.
..EDWARDS.. 09/16/2012
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