ACUS03 KWNS 280730
SWODY3
SPC AC 280728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
LOW LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT DIGS SEWD ACROSS TX INTO THE
NCNTRL GULF IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF.
ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE AND FARTHER NORTH WITH A
CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER SRN AR AT 01/12Z WHILE THE NAM IS LESS
DEFINED AND POSITIVE TILTED. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCY IN LOW LEVEL RESPONSE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. IF THE ECMWF IS ACCURATE THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL SURGE INLAND ALONG THE CNTRL
GULF COAST TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING FOR DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE STRONGER SOLUTION WOULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD
INLAND DURING THE PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE
PROBS ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST.
..DARROW.. 09/28/2012
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