DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 280844
SWOD48
SPC AC 280843

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES...

EVOLUTION OF LOW LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL LARGELY DICTATE THE
DEGREE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THAT RETURNS INLAND AHEAD OF SFC WAVE
DURING THE DAY4/5 PERIOD. ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS WHICH IS RELUCTANT TO MOVE THE UPPER FEATURE BEYOND THE
SABINE RIVER/WRN GULF BASIN BY 03/00Z. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR
WHICH...IF EITHER...SOLUTION IS CORRECT AND THUS THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION INLAND ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST IS VERY
UNCERTAIN. ALTHOUGH ROBUST...POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS...MAY
ULTIMATELY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NOT INTRODUCE
ORGANIZED SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TROUGH EVOLUTION.

..DARROW.. 09/28/2012

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