DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 290433
SWODY1
SPC AC 290431

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SANDY WILL CONTINUE NWWD TOWARD THE NJ SHORE DURING THE DAY...AND
WILL PHASE WITH THE ERN U.S. TROUGH. THE RESULTING UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS PA...WITH WIDESPREAD WIND AND
RAIN. SOME DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND
NRN ROCKIES...BUT THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY YIELD ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM
ERN WA INTO WRN MT.

...NEW ENGLAND...
AS SANDY TURNS MORE WWD AND MOVES ASHORE...ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WILL
RAPIDLY CHANGE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE EXTREMELY STABLE AS A WARM CORE LEFT OVER FROM
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ROTATES NWWD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 1.0 C AT TIMES WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES BARELY BELOW FREEZING. RAPID COOLING ALOFT WILL TAKE
PLACE AFTER 00Z ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WHILE WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS
IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL CREATE WEAK INSTABILITY...AND
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. NOT
ONLY WILL THIS FAVOR LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ALSO IT SHOULD
BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS.
THEREFORE...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AND...A
BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FARTHER N INTO ME...SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN TOO
STABLE FOR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SEVERE WINDS.

..JEWELL/LEITMAN.. 10/29/2012

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