DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071624
SWODY1
SPC AC 071622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT SUN OCT 07 2012

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS THROUGH 12Z MON. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...ONE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL
MOVE E/NE WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE FLOW PATTERN. ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THIS AFTN.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
SERN U.S. AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EWD/SEWD THROUGH MON MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES.

...PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTN/EVENING...
DIURNAL HEATING NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
SHOULD RESULT IN A ZONE OF SFC-BASED CAPE THIS AFTN OF 1000 TO
LOCALLY 2000 J/KG. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
DEEP SHEAR FOR MOSTLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL TSTMS THIS AFTN ALONG AND
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK SFC LOW
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SC AND MOVE NEWD LATER
TODAY...MODESTLY ENHANCING CONVERGENCE. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...WITH A THREAT OF STG
WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

..BUNTING/WEISS.. 10/07/2012

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