DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 071635
SWODY2
SPC AC 071634

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT SUN OCT 07 2012

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY. AMID
ASSOCIATED BROAD/STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...ONE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL STEADILY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TN VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
LITTLE IF ANY TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ASIDE FROM THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST STATES/FL...WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND EXIT COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST ASIDE
FROM THE FL PENINSULA.

...FL/COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES...
AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION...TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRAPE
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FL BY AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE WAVE. WHILE A FEW STRONGER TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MODEST INSTABILITY/WEAK LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AND SLOWLY WEAKENING NEAR-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IMPLY A
VERY LIMITED SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL. ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

...OK/SOUTHERN KS VICINITY...
AN ISOLATED TSTM MIGHT BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WITH
ONSET OF A WARM ADVECTION REGIME LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY TSTM POTENTIAL IS NEGLIGIBLE
/SUB-10 PERCENT PROBABILITY/ AS MOISTURE RETURN AND DESTABILIZATION
ALOFT WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

..GUYER.. 10/07/2012

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