DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 080718
SWODY3
SPC AC 080717

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2012

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
EASTERN PACIFIC BLOCKING APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SLOWLY BREAKING
DOWN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CUT-OFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES...MODELS DO SUGGEST IT WILL TURN EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO
SLOWLY ADVANCE INLAND. DOWNSTREAM...CONFLUENT BELTS OF WESTERLIES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE ZONAL...AS A VIGOROUS IMPULSE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES EAST NORTHEAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE STALLING/WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THOUGH...IT APPEARS ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN NOSING SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.

...PARTS OF SRN PLAINS INTO LWR/MID MS VALLEY...
AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE ON SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND
PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BENEATH REMNANT
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXED LAYER
CAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG...IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY VEERING WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODEST
WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...BUT FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
BENEATH SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGING REMAINS UNCLEAR.

STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS A BIT MORE PROBABLE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...SUPPORTED BY AREAS OF
STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY
NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BETTER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PAINS...MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL...BUT COVERAGE IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN FOR
SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR.. 10/08/2012

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