Saturday, November 3, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030523
SWODY1
SPC AC 030521

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT SAT NOV 03 2012

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL THROUGH NERN TX INTO SRN AR...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM WRN TX THROUGH CNTRL AND NERN OK WILL
CONTINUE SEWD AND LIKELY EXTEND FROM CNTRL AR SWWD INTO SWRN TX BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DIABATIC WARMING WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
INSTABILITY /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/ AS MID 60S DEWPOINTS RESIDING IN
S TX ADVECT NWD THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. WITH ONLY A WEAK
CAP EXPECTED...FORCING WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY PROVE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CNTRL AND NERN TX INTO SRN
AR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BELT OF STRONGER WLYS ALOFT ATTENDING THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ESEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/MID-UPPER MS VALLEY
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.
NEVERTHELESS...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL.. 11/03/2012

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