DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031625
SWODY1
SPC AC 031622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT SAT NOV 03 2012

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL/NE TX TO SRN AR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A WEAK SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE E OF THE MID-MS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING W-SWD ACROSS SRN AR
AND INTO NE/CNTRL TX. AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT N/EWD
TODAY...WITH 50S-LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS SPREADING INTO WRN/MIDDLE TN.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AND CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ERODES. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /E.G. 15-20 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR/ AND DEEP-LAYER FORCING SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION
AND AREAL COVERAGE...BUT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...SOME RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL WILL EXIST.

...W-CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN MX AND NM...AND A MCV POSITIONED NEAR THE
GUADALUPE MTNS AS OF 16Z. THESE FEATURES MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON OVER W TX. HI-RES
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE /I.E. EXPERIMENTAL SPC-SSEO/ INDICATES A
CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL EMANATE OUT OF W TX LATER THIS EVENING AND
TURN SEWD...MOVING ALONG/NEAR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS WILL REMAIN NEAR-SFC BASED
OVERNIGHT GIVEN MOIST LOW-LEVEL PROFILES /E.G. SFC DEW POINTS NEAR
70 F/...AND COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 11/03/2012

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