DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 031716
SWODY2
SPC AC 031715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT SAT NOV 03 2012

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND ERN GULF COAST STATES. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM NRN FL
EXTENDING NEWD INTO AREAS JUST OFFSHORE FROM SC. SFC DEWPOINTS
INLAND ACROSS SC COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S F WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY MID-AFTERNOON DUE TO WARMING SFC TEMPS.
THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z ON SUNDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM SRN NC SWWD TO NEAR CHARLESTON SC SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABOUT 30 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND
DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE THREAT CONCENTRATED AROUND PEAK HEATING. A 5
PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS SRN NC...ERN
SC AND PARTS OF ERN GA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

..BROYLES.. 11/03/2012

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