DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 190712
SWODY3
SPC AC 190711

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 AM CST MON NOV 19 2012

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST TO THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY AS A
LOWER AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WEAKENS AND MOVES FROM THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. IN THE EAST...A LARGE
SCALE RIDGE WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF RECENT TROUGHING THAT WILL BE
DEPARTING THESE AREAS FOR THE WRN ATLANTIC.

...SW...
TSTM PROSPECTS WILL AGAIN REMAIN GENERALLY LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE
WITH ONE EXCEPTION POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NM AND FAR WEST TX.
WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. APEX OF
MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MAY COINCIDE WITH STRONGER ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DE-AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NM AND
WEST TX DURING THE AFTERNOON SO THAT A FEW TSTMS MAY BE SUPPORTED
OVER THESE AREAS. DYNAMIC AND DIURNAL TRENDS SHOULD LIMIT THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE STORMS.

...NW...
STRONGEST ONSHORE FLOW BENEATH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL EXIST IN
THE EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE UPPER TROUGH PASSES EAST AND
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO REBOUND ACROSS WA/OR. SCATTERED NEAR-COAST
TSTMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE START OF THE PERIOD PRIOR TO THE LOWER
STATIC STABILITY ALOFT MOVING INLAND. WHILE SPORADIC LIGHTNING MAY
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH INLAND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES GIVEN STRONG
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PERHAPS OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES...VERY
WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE MORE THAN
SHORT-LIVED/ISOLD STORMS.

..CARBIN.. 11/19/2012

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