ACUS48 KWNS 190818
SWOD48
SPC AC 190817
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CST MON NOV 19 2012
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS A VARIETY OF DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND D4-D6. DURING
THIS TIME FRAME A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVEL FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SEWD
FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO MIDWEST AND LIKELY REACH THE EAST COAST ON
SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC NORTHWARD.
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST TO
SRN PLAINS ON D4 TO EARLY D5...AND THEN PERHAPS IN THE EAST ON
D5/FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO
SUPPORT STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
LOW WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP.
BEYOND D5/FRIDAY...MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO DE-AMPLIFY FOR A
DAY OR TWO BEFORE A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD TOWARD THE
NRN U.S. FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WRN CANADA. THE LATEST ECMWF
AND CMC MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND STRONGER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAN
GFS FORECASTS. NONETHELESS...LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND AN INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE RETURN FROM TX TO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY LATE D8/EARLY NEXT TUESDAY. NOT SURPRISINGLY
THERE IS LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THIS FAR OUT AND ANY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BEYOND
D8 BASED ON THE LIMITED COHERENT PATTERN TRENDS THAT CAN BE FOUND.
..CARBIN.. 11/19/2012
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