ACUS03 KWNS 240831
SWODY3
SPC AC 240830
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2012
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR INTO
MONDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY GRADUAL LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT EAST OF
THE ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY WITH INCREASING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEAR THE FRONT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
...EAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK/ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AND ANTICIPATED
GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION INTO MONDAY...THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WILL INTERCEPT AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE WARM
SECTOR BY PEAK HEATING. THIS MOISTURE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AS MUCH AS
1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WHILE SOME TIMING/AMPLITUDE SPREAD EXISTS AMONGST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TSTMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND...MORE SO...EVENING NEAR THE ADVANCING FRONT ACROSS
AREAS POTENTIALLY INCLUDING EAST TX/FAR SOUTHEAST OK AND THE
ARKLATEX. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AT
LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE /30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR/ OF ORGANIZED
STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS/BOWS. THE REGION
WILL BE REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR A POSSIBLE
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.
..GUYER.. 11/24/2012
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