Tuesday, November 27, 2012

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 270901
SWOD48
SPC AC 270901

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 AM CST TUE NOV 27 2012

VALID 301200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A QUIESCENT PATTERN FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND AS A QUASI-ZONAL/MODEST FLOW REGIME PERSISTS IN
THE WRN GULF COAST STATES. EARLY NEXT WEEK...PREDICTABILITY WANES AS
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS DEPICT AN AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE WRN INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTED BY INDIVIDUAL GEFS MEMBERS...WITH THE CMC
SUGGESTIVE OF LITTLE AMPLIFICATION. EVEN WITH THE MORE AMPLIFIED
SCENARIOS...WITH PREDOMINANT 850-700 MB FLOW...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN DOES APPEAR PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPING ROBUST WARM
SECTOR BUOYANCY. THUS...A RELATIVE INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
POSSIBLE BUT STILL WELL BELOW PROBABILITIES AOA 30 PERCENT.

..GRAMS.. 11/27/2012

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