DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 060823
SWODY3
SPC AC 060821

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CST SUN JAN 06 2013

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH TX...

...TX...

LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST UPPER LOW
OVER NRN MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EWD DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD AS
MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ROTATES TOWARD THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER
VALLEY LATE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR NWD ADVANCEMENT OF MARITIME
TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX/LOWER TX COAST. AS SFC DEW
POINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION WITHIN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
AS COASTAL/WARM FRONT ADVANCES INLAND BUOYANCY SHOULD INCREASE SUCH
THAT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...BOTH ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
AND PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE PRESENT. STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL
ENCOURAGE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION ACROSS TX
WITH TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL/NRN TX ELEVATED AND LESS BUOYANT IN
NATURE. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH NEAR-SFC BASED ACTIVITY
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION. NWD EXTENT OF SEVERE WILL BE LIMITED BY COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION BENEATH
THE WARM CONVEYOR.

..DARROW.. 01/06/2013

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