ACUS48 KWNS 060913
SWOD48
SPC AC 060913
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 AM CST SUN JAN 06 2013
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCY BEGINS TO EMERGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD REGARDING THE EJECTING UPPER LOW ACROSS TX. THE GFS IS
SUBSTANTIALLY FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF BY DAY5 WITH A
DEAMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE OVER SERN ONTARIO AT 11/12Z WHILE THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOWER NEAR THE ARKLATEX. FOR THIS REASON EXTREME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SEVERE EXISTS BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD THERE IS SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF TX WHERE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE SPREAD INLAND
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AHEAD OF PACIFIC
FRONT. IT APPEARS A SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION AND LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.
..DARROW.. 01/06/2013
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment