DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 080713
SWODY3
SPC AC 080711

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 AM CST FRI MAR 08 2013

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE
SRN ROCKIES SUNDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER
TO MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES
ENHANCED ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP FROM WRN TN SWWD ACROSS NRN LA INTO SE
TX AS IS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM NORTH OF JACKSON MS SWWD TO NEAR ALEXANDRIA LA AT 00Z/MON SHOW
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000
J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WHEN SFC TEMPS PEAK IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS WRN MS...NCNTRL LA AND
FAR SE AR WHERE THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW...INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MAXIMIZED. DUE TO THESE FACTORS...A
FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR IF A LINE SEGMENT CAN
DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 03/08/2013

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