DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 080944
SWOD48
SPC AC 080943

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CST FRI MAR 08 2013

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON MONDAY/DAY 4. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY MONDAY MORNING
WITH THIS CONVECTION MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES
AND TN VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS THE AGGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...DEVELOPING AN MCS FROM TN SWD TO THE FL PANHANDLE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS WHERE TO PAN OUT...THEN A SEVERE THREAT
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF TN...MS AND AL ON MONDAY WHERE SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE MID 50S F TO THE LOWER 60S F.
THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING THE CONVECTION CONCENTRATED
ACROSS SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE WHICH WOULD NOT BE AS FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ON TUESDAY/DAY 5...THE MODELS VARY MARKEDLY WITH
THE ECMWF KEEPING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS
AND THE GFS MOVING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NERN STATES. A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON TUESDAY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. ON
WEDNESDAY/DAY 6...MODEL DISCREPANCY CONTINUES BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. AT THIS
POINT...A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD EXIST MONDAY
AFTERNOON/DAY 4 IN THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY BUT
PREDICTABILITY CONCERNING THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT
APPEAR LOW.

..BROYLES.. 03/08/2013

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