DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 130722
SWODY3
SPC AC 130721

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2013

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK INTO SRN IL...

...ERN OK TO SRN IL...

IN THE WAKE OF UPPER MS VALLEY SPEED MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH WEAK
HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION. EARLY MORNING FRONTAL SURGE ACROSS OK IS EXPECTED TO
STALL BY MID DAY PARTLY DUE TO STRONG HEATING ACROSS NORTH TX/SERN
OK. IN THE ABSENCE OF IDENTIFIABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT DIABATIC
HEATING NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT SUGGEST
INHIBITION WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
MID-UPPER 80S. WHILE THE NAM DOES NOT GENERATE QPF...GFS DOES
DEVELOP SCT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS ERN OK INTO NCNTRL
TX. GIVEN THAT 40KT OF SFC-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT...SBCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG WOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO
WARRANT SEVERE PROBS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK
HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT ACROSS MAINLY ERN OK.


FARTHER NORTHEAST...VEERED LLJ WILL TRANSLATE INTO ERN MO/IL BY LATE
AFTERNOON THEN FOCUS ACROSS NERN OK BY 16/12Z. TSTMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG A RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FROM SERN KS/NERN OK
ACROSS SRN MO INTO SRN IL ANYTIME DURING THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION MAY BE
TIED TO AFOREMENTIONED ZONES OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
MODULATED BY LLJ. WITH TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TRANSPORT OF QUALITY MOISTURE
NWD INTO THIS REGION THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT MODEST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST JUST NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT TO
SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS WITH NEAR SFC-BASED
ACTIVITY.

..DARROW.. 04/13/2013

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