DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 130834
SWOD48
SPC AC 130833

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2013

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD SWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE SRN PLAINS/MS VALLEY
DURING THE EARLY-MID WEEK BEFORE NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG BACK SIDE
OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. LARGE SCALE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR DEEP SFC
CYCLOGENESIS DURING THE PERIOD BUT RATHER A WEAK WAVE SHOULD BE
INDUCED ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO SWRN TX
WEDNESDAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PENETRATION OVER THE PLAINS.
MULTIPLE DAYS OF FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES OFF THE WRN GULF BASIN
SHOULD RESULT IN MEANINGFUL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVANCING ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WITH SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE/ELEVATED BUOYANCY EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A BAND OF POST
FRONTAL CONVECTION WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE. DIABATIC HEATING AND
FRONTAL LIFT SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SHUNTS DEEPER MOISTURE/ASCENT EAST.
STEEPEST LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY MAY BE OVERTURNED BY MID WEEK SO
CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED SEVERE DOWNSTREAM IS LOWER THAN ACROSS THE
PLAINS/MS VALLEY REGION.

..DARROW.. 04/13/2013

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