DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011611
SWODY1
SPC AC 011609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT WED MAY 01 2013

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL TX...

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE WESTERN
STATES...WHILE AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER LA. THE RESULT IS A RATHER
BENIGN PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH ONLY LIMITED AREAS OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

...TX...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST OK. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL OK INTO NORTHWEST TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MORNING RAOBS ACROSS TX SHOWED RATHER WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES.
GIVEN THE NEGLIGIBLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING THAT IS ANTICIPATED
TODAY...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE QUITE
ISOLATED. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TWO AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
A STORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONE AREA IS OVER WESTERN NORTH
TX ALONG THE SURGING COLD FRONT. THE SECOND AREA IS OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE FULL SUNSHINE MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE. IN BOTH AREAS...VERTICAL
SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
NEVERTHELESS...STRONGER STORMS COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR HAIL THIS EVENING.

...FL...
A LARGE/MATURE MCS IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND WILL AFFECT THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER
IS OVERSPREADING FL AHEAD OF THE STORMS...WHICH WILL LIMIT
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE.
REFER TO MCD NUMBER 586 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

..HART/GARNER.. 05/01/2013

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