MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0586

ACUS11 KWNS 011608
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011607
FLZ000-011800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT WED MAY 01 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA/FL KEYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 011607Z - 011800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FL PENINSULA AND FL KEYS VICINITY
AS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND/GENERALLY WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...PERHAPS AIDED BY AN MCV...A WELL-ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTH FL AT MIDDAY...EXTENDING IN A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION ROUGHLY 35-50 MILES TO THE WEST OF THE
SOUTHWEST FL PENINSULA AS OF 1545Z. WHILE A MODEST ACCELERATION
COULD OCCUR...A FORWARD MOTION OF 25-30 KT WILL GENERALLY BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE QUASI-LINEAR MCS IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY
WEAK LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PER WSR-88D VWP DATA/12Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS...WITH A MEAN 0-6 KM WIND OF 10-15 KT OR LESS. THIS IS IN
ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF THE MCS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FL
PENINSULA WHERE A BIT MORE CONSEQUENTIAL INSOLATION/HEATING IS
OCCURRING ON THE FRINGE OF THE HIGHER CLOUD CANOPY. MODIFICATIONS TO
THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM MIAMI FOR LOWER 80S F SURFACE
TEMPERATURES/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS SUGGEST THAT LITTLE IF ANY
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. IN
ALL...WHILE THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE MCS WILL REMAIN MODEST...SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE WINDS WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS THIS AFTERNOON...ASIDE FROM
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

..GUYER/HART.. 05/01/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON 26488258 27038233 27248129 26917986 24938040 24498185
25148180 26018206 26488258

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