DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 091739
SWODY2
SPC AC 091737

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT THU MAY 09 2013

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX TO LOWER
MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY/PA
VICINITY...

CORRECTED FOR DISCUSSION WORDING

...TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO PORTIONS OF LA/MS. THIS
CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY DELINEATE AN EFFECTIVE
FRONTAL ZONE/FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE OTHERWISE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EARLY DAY STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL...BUT A MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR
SEVERE TSTMS TO REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF THE EFFECTIVE
FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AND PERHAPS THE RIO GRANDE
VICINITY...WHILE OTHER STORMS MAY PERSIST IN A SEMI-ORGANIZED
FASHION ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INCLUDING LA/MS. A COMBINATION OF
SUPERCELLS/MULTICELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...WITH POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE
EASTWARD-MOVING CLUSTERS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS/BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SUPERCELL MODES/LARGE HAIL MOST
PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX.

...UPPER OH VALLEY TO PA VICINITY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY/PA
VICINITY...WITH OTHER ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MD/VA/NC IN VICINITY OF A LEE TROUGH. MOIST
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER/WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD
TEMPER OVERALL DESTABILIZATION /500-1000 J PER KG CAPE/ ACROSS THE
UPPER OH VALLEY/PA. EVEN SO...A BELT OF MODERATE MID-HIGH LEVEL
FLOW...LARGELY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEMI-ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

FARTHER SOUTH...STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS MORE PROBABLE IN
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS WILL EXIST
PROVIDED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..GUYER.. 05/09/2013

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