Thursday, May 9, 2013

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 091732
SWODY2
SPC AC 091730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 09 2013

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX TO LOWER
MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY/PA
VICINITY...

...TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO PORTIONS OF LA/MS. THIS
CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY DELINEATE AN EFFECTIVE
FRONTAL ZONE/FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE
SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EARLY DAY STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL...BUT A MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR
SEVERE TSTMS TO REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF THE EFFECTIVE
FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AND PERHAPS THE RIO GRANDE
VICINITY...WHILE OTHER STORMS MAY PERSIST IN A SEMI-ORGANIZED
FASHION ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INCLUDING LA/MS. A COMBINATION OF
SUPERCELLS/MULTICELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...WITH POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE
EASTWARD-MOVING CLUSTERS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS/BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SUPERCELL MODES/LARGE HAIL MOST
PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX.

...UPPER OH VALLEY TO PA VICINITY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY/PA
VICINITY...WITH OTHER ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MD/VA/NC IN VICINITY OF A LEE TROUGH. MOIST
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
THE COLD...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER/WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD TEMPER
OVERALL DESTABILIZATION /500-1000 J PER KG CAPE/ ACROSS THE UPPER OH
VALLEY/PA. EVEN SO...A BELT OF MODERATE MID-HIGH LEVEL
FLOW...LARGELY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEMI-ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

FARTHER SOUTH...STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS MORE PROBABLE IN
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A
CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS WILL EXIST PROVIDED STORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..GUYER.. 05/09/2013

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