MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1006

ACUS11 KWNS 091829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091828
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-091930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CDT SUN JUN 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR/FAR NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN-EAST CENTRAL
MO...FAR WRN KY...AND SRN/CENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091828Z - 091930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NERN AR/FAR NWRN MS NWD INTO ERN MO/SRN-CENTRAL IL WITH THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WW ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR THIS
REGION.

DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND SURFACE ANALYSES
INDICATED A RELATIVELY NARROW DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR EXTENDING
FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/G IN
ERN AR TO MS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAKER WITH NWD EXTENT AT
THIS TIME INTO IL...ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING SHOULD ALLOW THE AIR MASS HERE TO ALSO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80 F IN CENTRAL IL HAVE
ERODED THE INHIBITION...SUGGESTING STORMS NOW LOCATED FROM INVOF STL
TO SERN MO WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THEY ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL/SRN IL.

WSR-88D VWP DATA ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY /IL...IND AND WRN KY/
INDICATED STRENGTHENING SSWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS OF 40-50+ KT
CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION. FURTHER EXPECTED DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND E OF THE
ONGOING STORMS /WHICH EXTENDED SWD FROM WEST CENTRAL IL TO CENTRAL
AR/ AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS.

..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 06/09/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 38969103 40169006 40178942 39578832 38458804 36628824
34618922 34219111 34789197 35689185 36649169 38969103

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